It's just a bit early, that's all. Also, the way the filters are set, sometimes birds that are expected in one location come up rare because they're not expected anywhere else in the county. (I used to have to enter Brewer's Blackbird as rare every time I went out to Illinois Beach, even though there's a well-known breeding colony there.) If you do enough birding this time of year, you're going to end up with things e-bird claims are rare.