So re-reading wheeler I realize my mistake. I got the molt right I think (subadult I - accidently said prebasic above) with the p6-p10, s3-4, and s7-12ish still being juvenile feathers (long, faded, and pointed in the 2nd photo). However, that molt happens after the first birthday, not the first winter. So that would mean it's approaching its 2nd birthday, despite the light colours. Molt is probably finished for a southern bird, so it will carry most of these feathers into the fall of 2019. Does that sound right, or am I still messing this up?