BRDL

[Quiscalus quiscula]

BRDL 31

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[Peromyscus]

BRDL 31
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[BirdNrd]

BRDL 31
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[chipperatl]

I crunched some numbers on this.  Nothing with crazy math like the Wordle YouTube video.  

• As was mentioned previously S-O-R-A are the 4 most common letters in the ABA banding codes, but not in that order.
• The most common first letters, with count of occurrence, are
  1. B - 146
  2. C - 115
  3. S - 94
  4. R - 84
  5. G - 83
• The most common second letters are
  1. A - 172
  2. O - 128
  3. E - 99
  4. R - 93
  5. B - 79
• The most common third letters are
  1. S - 150
  2. W - 98
  3. P - 86
  4. T - 78
  5. G - 78
• The most common fourth letters are
  1. A - 167
  2. U - 125
  3. O - 116
  4. I - 90
  5. E - 81
• Adding up those occurrences the highest values are (total counts letter 1-4)
  1. BASA - 635 (146+172+150+167)
  2. BAWA - 583 (ABA Code 6)
  3. COSA - 560 (not a common bird ABA Code 3, but first with no repeat letters)
  4. CAWA - 552
  5. BBSA - 542
  6. BASH - 542 (not a common bird ABA Code 4)
  7. CAPA - 540 (ABA Code 6)
  8. SOSA - 539
  9. BOWA - 539 (first Code 1 or 2 without repeating letters)
  10. MASA - 537

[IKLland]

2 hours ago, chipperatl said:

I crunched some numbers on this.  Nothing with crazy math like the Wordle YouTube video.  

• As was mentioned previously S-O-R-A are the 4 most common letters in the ABA banding codes, but not in that order.
• The most common first letters, with count of occurrence, are
  1. B - 146
  2. C - 115
  3. S - 94
  4. R - 84
  5. G - 83
• The most common second letters are
  1. A - 172
  2. O - 128
  3. E - 99
  4. R - 93
  5. B - 79
• The most common third letters are
  1. S - 150
  2. W - 98
  3. P - 86
  4. T - 78
  5. G - 78
• The most common fourth letters are
  1. A - 167
  2. U - 125
  3. O - 116
  4. I - 90
  5. E - 81
• Adding up those occurrences the highest values are (total counts letter 1-4)
  1. BASA - 635 (146+172+150+167)
  2. BAWA - 583 (ABA Code 6)
  3. COSA - 560 (not a common bird ABA Code 3, but first with no repeat letters)
  4. CAWA - 552
  5. BBSA - 542
  6. BASH - 542 (not a common bird ABA Code 4)
  7. CAPA - 540 (ABA Code 6)
  8. SOSA - 539
  9. BOWA - 539 (first Code 1 or 2 without repeating letters)
  10. MASA - 537

I feel like there’s a lot with W as the third letter. 
Warblers 

[PaulK]

BRDL 32

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[PaulK]

7 hours ago, chipperatl said:

I crunched some numbers on this.  Nothing with crazy math like the Wordle YouTube video. 

Fun exercise! I think it needs tweaking though: if you count the sum of the occurrences rather than matching the place then it gives a different result -- the double A in BASA is a detriment as the occurrence in the second letter gets you the fourth letter occurrence as well. So COSA would be better as 115 + (128+116) + (94+150) + (172+167).

[Jefferson Shank]

BRDL 32
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[chipperatl]

No dice today.  This has a different code than my ABA sheet has.  

3 hours ago, PaulK said:

Fun exercise! I think it needs tweaking though: if you count the sum of the occurrences rather than matching the place then it gives a different result -- the double A in BASA is a detriment as the occurrence in the second letter gets you the fourth letter occurrence as well. So COSA would be better as 115 + (128+116) + (94+150) + (172+167).

SORA would be the top answer if not trying to nail the places, as those are the 4 most common throughout the whole banding codes.  

[lonestranger]

13 minutes ago, chipperatl said:

SORA would be the top answer if not trying to nail the places, as those are the 4 most common throughout the whole banding codes.  

I'm curious what the percentages work out to with the letters. As an example, is the letter S in 10%, 20%, 30% of all the banding codes. I wonder if the percentage is high enough to actually provide an advantage when using SORA as an opener, or any consistent opener for that matter. Using ridiculous extremes as an example, if S is in 1% of all banding codes, then S is not in 99% of the banding codes. If you use S in 100% of your opening guesses, you'd be wrong 99% of the time. Maybe my logic is flawed, but I see no strategic advantage to using the same code over and over again as an opener based on how common the letters are. I can understand using the same opening guess for different strategic reasons, but I see no advantage to using SORA as an opening guess all the time. I look at it like cutting a deck of cards repeatedly and betting that you're going to turn up the ace of spades every time. Just sharing my confused spin on games of luck.

[lonestranger]

Definitely a game of LUCK!

BRDL 32
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[Birding Boy]

BRDL 32
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[Kevin]

30 minutes ago, lonestranger said:

Definitely a game of LUCK!

Indeed. 

BRDL 32
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[Connor Cochrane]

BRDL 32
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[Peromyscus]

BRDL 32
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[PaulK]

1 hour ago, lonestranger said:

I can understand using the same opening guess for different strategic reasons

I'm by no means good at the game but I use the same opening (or pair of openings if there's nothing in the first one) to rule out some large classes of birds. If you used SORA and there's no S then it's not a sparrow, swallow, etc. My problem is when that's successful and I'm just stuck flipping through a guide...

[chipperatl]

1 hour ago, lonestranger said:

I'm curious what the percentages work out to with the letters. As an example, is the letter S in 10%, 20%, 30% of all the banding codes. I wonder if the percentage is high enough to actually provide an advantage when using SORA as an opener, or any consistent opener for that matter. Using ridiculous extremes as an example, if S is in 1% of all banding codes, then S is not in 99% of the banding codes. If you use S in 100% of your opening guesses, you'd be wrong 99% of the time. Maybe my logic is flawed, but I see no strategic advantage to using the same code over and over again as an opener based on how common the letters are. I can understand using the same opening guess for different strategic reasons, but I see no advantage to using SORA as an opening guess all the time. I look at it like cutting a deck of cards repeatedly and betting that you're going to turn up the ace of spades every time. Just sharing my confused spin on games of luck.

Letter - count of letter as first-fourth letter, overall percentage

 

[lonestranger]

23 minutes ago, PaulK said:

I'm by no means good at the game but I use the same opening (or pair of openings if there's nothing in the first one) to rule out some large classes of birds. If you used SORA and there's no S then it's not a sparrow, swallow, etc. My problem is when that's successful and I'm just stuck flipping through a guide...

That's the type of strategy I was referring to. I try to eliminate groups of birds with my opening guesses too. I like to mix it up differently every day though.

[lonestranger]

30 minutes ago, chipperatl said:

2 hours ago, lonestranger said:

I'm curious what the percentages work out to with the letters. As an example, is the letter S in 10%, 20%, 30% of all the banding codes. I wonder if the percentage is high enough to actually provide an advantage when using SORA as an opener, or any consistent opener for that matter. Using ridiculous extremes as an example, if S is in 1% of all banding codes, then S is not in 99% of the banding codes. If you use S in 100% of your opening guesses, you'd be wrong 99% of the time. Maybe my logic is flawed, but I see no strategic advantage to using the same code over and over again as an opener based on how common the letters are. I can understand using the same opening guess for different strategic reasons, but I see no advantage to using SORA as an opening guess all the time. I look at it like cutting a deck of cards repeatedly and betting that you're going to turn up the ace of spades every time. Just sharing my confused spin on games of luck.

Expand  

Letter - count of letter as first-fourth letter, overall percentage

Thanks chipperati, your chart shows just how unlikely our guesses really are. It also shows that for some letters my extreme example of 1% to 99% wasn't all that extreme after all.

[PaulK]

Looks like my usual first two answers can rule out about 42% of species.

[Avery]

BRDL 32
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played a dangerous game today

[PalmWarbler]

BRDL 32
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[lonestranger]

My first guess is usually a local bird I am familiar with. I just pick one off the top of my head that has what I'll refer to as helpful letters in the code. If none of the letters are helpful, I just make another wild guess of familiar birds until I find a letter and it's proper placement. The next day I try to think of a different bird with helpful letters in the code and start the guessing game again. Once i start getting a few letters, that's when they start becoming educated guesses with strategic purposes. The more letters I get and the more I find the right place for, the sooner I get to that last lucky guess. That's when I convince myself that my skill had something to do with getting that last guess right. ?

[Avery]

I have a bank of like 5 birds that I'll switch up guessing first, and then depending on what that gets me, second. 

[neilpa]

BRDL 32
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